Last Thursday’s Amazing Race Asia was a relaxing episode. Contestants had fun while doing the tasks, and even though Mardy and Marsio were out, my favourite team (Andrew and Syeon) are still in, and they’re the top three. (Yay for alliteration here)
Of course, you don’t read about me blogging about the Amazing Race Asia, which I have been following since the start, so why today?
Simple. Because of Andrew’s dream. And randomness. And the matter of probability.
Right. So, I had too much time on my hands, so with cfgt‘s help (he’s the statistics genius and actuary student), I wrote a little something in Excel’s VBA just to show that Andrew and Syeon had a lot of luck. Maybe not.
Here’s the lowdown for those who didn’t watch: There were 42 carriages in the Eye of Dubai (which pitifully copied the Eye of London, of which the Eye of Kuala Lumpur also pathetically copied), and in each of the 42 carriages, there were envelopes. However, only 5 of these envelopes are clues, while the others contain a message: “Sorry, Try Again”.
Andrew told Syeon (and us) that he had a dream, in it which he won the Amazing Race Asia, and it had a number – 19. So based on the dream, Andrew and Syeon picked carriage number 19 for their first carriage to explore, and lo and behold, they found the correct carriage with the clue.
Technically, there was a 5/42 chance (or 0.11904761) chance in getting a clue first. That would mean, that Andrew and Syeon, arriving at the Eye of Dubai, had that amount of chances to get a clue on the first try. Of which, they did get the clue on the first try.
Easy enough. But for us idle television watchers, for Andrew and Syeon to get it right on the first time in Carriage 19 is actually roughly a 1/250 (with a relatively large variance) chance. This means, if the round has to be played over and over again, the chances of us watching Andrew and Syeon get it right on the first time in Carriage 19 is 1 in every 218 times (Approximately). This is also, assuming that the producers of the show randomly distribute their clues, and is reset each time a new round begins.
Continue reading Amazing Race Asia – Randomness