As the finale of the Amazing Race Asia draws close, who will win?
Let us first review some amazing stuff, which will mostly end on questions. Previously, on the Amazing Race Asia…my blog, I had pondered the randomness of the race. That was part one of the randomness… this is not part 2 (because part 2 entails karma, chaos theory, and the like). This is a question of who will win in the coming finale.
First off, we have the positions as of Episode 12-
Joe Jer and Zabrina’s Palindromic Positioning
Joe Jer and Zabrina have their positions up to Episode 11 as such: 3-4-5-6-3-3-6-5-4-3 (as noticed by hardcore Zabrina and Joe Jer fan, cabioTAR). The palindromic positioning was broken in Episode 12, when they got to 2nd place. Will 2 go to 1?
It should also be noted that Joe Jer and Zabrina’s positioning are the least turbulent amongst all, which will lead to the next point -
Predictability
Naturally, in a chaotic race, where thousands of variables come into play, predictibility is hard. But because of Joe Jer and Zabrina’s not-so-turbulent positioning, it would actually be easier to predict the outcome of this team.
The yellow line is the standard model for predictability of a winner. The closer a curve is to the shape of the yellow line, the easier it is to predict the team’s outcome. Hence, it’s easy to see that Zabrina and Joe Jer are the most predictable, while Sandy and Francesca are the least predictable.
Knowing that, I dumped the positioning data into my graphing program and compared it with a standard normal distribution graph, to check on the probability of each team getting first in the finale -
Of course, this graph is a 2D graph, without factoring in the other stuffs like teams’ luck (like Andrew and Syeon almost always getting a slow transport to the finish line), skill (Sandy and Francesca being able to complete the physically challenging tasks quickly), efficiency (Andrew and Syeon are extremely efficient in their tasks)… etc
Ooh… colorful graphs!
Right. Some graphs I made are totally pointless, like me plotting each team’s position in relation to each other. It looks roughly like a circle, but it’s chaotic. And since graphs make this blog and this blogger look smart, here is some nonsensical 3D Graph which might or might not display Chaos Theory (another Big Word, to make me sound smarter).
Right, there you go.. some nonsensical graph (It’s actually a combined data graph… made it just for the fun of it). It serves no purpose, other than something really nice to look at when you’re bored. (similar for the graphs above. Some are pure common sense, and doesn’t require a graph). Alternatively, if you want to see the same data plotted on polar coordinates, you can click here to view another for fun, nonsensical graph, which of course, serves no purpose, other than aesthetics.
Other Factors -
There are other factors of course, that pre-determines if a person is going to win or not. [insert some nonsense about Karma here, just to sound wise]. Already mentioned is luck (which can be quantified, if I actually take the time), various skills (for tasks), general skills and etc. Of course, there is the personality thing, the most puh-psychological of them all. I liked bothe Malaysian teams on the Amazing Race Asia because Andrew and Syeon shows determination like no other, while Zabrina and Joe Jer are more laid back, has a take-a-challenge-as-it-comes attitude. Both are great attitudes, and from what I read from forums (and heard), their attitude extends to their normal day-to-day lives as well.
Well, the whole point of the show (and other reality TV) boils down to this, really. Personality. William Hung certainly did have a Personality (with a capital P), and so did the 2 great Malaysian teams in the Amazing Race Asia.
So Who Will Win?
On a single dimensional scale, based on previous leg statistics, the odds favor Andrew and Syeon by about 0.001 (maximum is 1). But that is without factoring in other factors like the aforementioned luck and skill (hey, why does it sound like a board game?) You never know. The world is a chaos (but orderly too, depending on what scale you look at). Predictability gets chucked out of the window every single leg. (Example: the leg where Andy and Laura got eliminated) Then again, in the world of Chaos, 0.001 could act like a quantum butterfly, and change the whole situation :D, on the downside, you have that Andrew and Syeon is not such a predictable team as opposed to Joe Jer and Zabrina.
Personally, I really like it if Andrew and Syeon won. Why? Simply because I like their attitude - we aim to win! But Joe Jer and Zabrina wouldn’t be bad as well (I like their treat everything that comes positively attitude). But if it were Sandy and Francesca, I’d say… chaos theory at work.
Anyways, I’d expect lots of reply in regards to my wrong usage of statistics (a few mathematicians read this). Har har. I don’t mind if you pointed it out. I really really suck at statistics. Or some replies like : Oh goodness me, can’t you just watch in peace without thinking all these nonsense? Ah… afterall, some people call me the biggest crapper 
Update:
After reading Z-1988’s comment, I went back and had a look at my program. Apparently in my hazy sleepiness yesterday, I had wrongly plotted the normal distribution, and had came to the wrong conclusion. Argh. The updated version is now on.
Go Andrew and Syeon! Go Zabrina and Joe Jer! Go Sandy and Francesca!
Cool?
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Instinct tells me, JZ will win
“Joe Jer and Zabrina’s positioning are the least turbulent amongst all..”
Ah but isn’t that what the directors wanted you to see. Should your data be normalized to compensate for director bias. But then, if god has a hand in shifting the odds, how do you compensate for that (sorry couldn’t resist that great unknown blah blah).
You sound like a fan of numb3rs on AXN.
LOL I LOVE your in depth analysis! It makes sense for an Andrew/Syeon win though cause statistically speaking.. well you said it all
Plus Sandy & Francesca are not known for being lucky on the show. Joe Jer & Zab may well be the fan favorite (as are mine) and a lot of things may point us to surprise win (first all female team to win. ever.) but in shows like TAR, foreshadowing is not always prominent as it is in Survivor. Most likely than not, it’s almost always red herrings thrown in by the producers (case in point : the Bamas). Anyway, still rooting for a JoeZab win, but regardless who wins the race, it has already become one of the better seasons in the entire Amazing Race series. Excellent post! 
Hi…
Interesting and kinda confusing… 
But why don’t u use linear regression analysis?? It’s much simpler and also if you use the software MINITAB, you will find out the r-value which tells you how reliable your datas are in predicting the next value….
hcfoo: Nevaaaar!!! Andrew and Syeon go!
Arnie: I need more information to well… normalize the data. Sadly, these other statistics are not privy to me. And yes, I love Numb3rs.
Izad: Something is really wrong here in my head today… I have been hearing nothing but support for Joe Jer and Zabrina the whole day. But they do have a chance of winning. Hey, but A&S FTW!
Z-1988: To be frank, I dun even know how to use the graphing software. I spent hours trying to move the mean of my normal distribution to 1 with a standard deviation of 1, but somehow, the mean keeps sticking to zero. There is a linear regression function but it looks… complicating. Ah… next time I’ll stick to my PDA’s Time and Space. Far easier to use.
I have something simple to say. How in the world is winning the Amazing Race a normally distributed random variable?
I’d use Weibull (normally used for distribution of real life stuff, especially fault analysis) but I have a problem figuring out HOW to use weibull distribution in the program…. grr… as for other types of distribution… don’t have to bother.. I have no idea how to work a discrete distribution into a colorful looking graph, so I best assume it to be continuous, and normal. Or rather, I make it normal and continuous. So much for cheating. I’ll need to borrow your Matlab or R.
Or I’d consider minitab as suggested by Z-1988
No idea who’d win, since I do not get cable tv. But Chewxy, you really are FREE. Mind giving me some of your time?
Your blog is like the meeting place for supergeniuses of the world or something. I have no idea what the heck you people are talking about that. Either I’m ultra-super-duper-stupid or…I actually have something to do with my time =D Just playing, you know I luv ya
Chewxy, if I need some graphs done, would you help.
Since your axis do not have any label, can’t really figure out what your lines are all about though.
[...] In any case, I found this interesting statistical blog on who the possibly winner might be. LOL It’s interesting, to say the least. Anyway, personally for me, it’s down to the good ole Brain, Heart, and Guts. [...]
JX : Nope. I only seem really free…
I’ll lend you some of my time next time you come to KL, but only if you lend me your time when I go to Hong Kong
Princess: Me too
Axn-Marea: Hahah… I’d help, if I have the time. I thought axises for things like the normal distribution, and PPCC graphs are pretty much self explanatory
So Joe Jer and Zabrina overtook Andrew and Syeon, and became the first winners of the Amazing Race Asia. Which proves statistical data might not be so potent in prediction.
Ah well, congratulations Joe Jer and Zabrina. You’ve made history
Told you woman’s instinct always right
Hmm.. maybe. Going tonight?