I got into a car accident yesterday. It was a pile-up, and though no one was injured (seriously), according to Malaysian traffic law, me being the last car, am the one at fault (despite physical evidence suggests that it was the first car which stopped abruptly which caused the whole pile-up). Now I’m not debating whether I’m right or wrong. But it was rush hour on the highway, and everyone was busy getting to work, I blame no one.
Point is, I am technically at the Wrong End of the Law, so I gotta pay a $300 compound/fine1 for apparently having a lapse of judgement (then again, everyone except the first car had to pay a compound/fine). However, something interesting happened as I filed a police report. An officer offered to make the report disappear magically after the insurance claim was filed (a police report is required for insurance claims). There would be no need to pay the compound/fine. I just had to make a small fee of $200 (he started with $100, but I didn’t show any interests in the bribe offer so he went for broke).
Calculation (skip calculation and game theory discussions to a more interesting part)
By then, only one thing was running in my mind - a payoff matrix (Oh, shut up, you know I am nerdy/geeky). I got home and asked cfgt (who is mathematically superior to me) to calculate my payoffs in either branch. He couldn’t do it, because he can’t pin values on my behalf. So I did it on my own. Here is how it looks like in an extensive form game. (And the following isn’t strictly game theory either. It’s a mix of decision rules as well.)
F = Pay the Fine, B = Pay the Bribe; R = Report Corruption Attempt, D = Don’t Report Corruption Attempt; C = Got Caught for Bribery, N = Not Caught for Bribery; J = Bribed Police did the job as promised2, U = Didn’t do the job as promised. P(C) = 0.00060623, P(J) = 0.74, EDU = $5005
Basically what I want to do here is to minimalize my disutility (and also maximize my utility). Because I myself can’t pin a figure down for “Peace of Mind”, “Conscience”, and “Clean Slate”, I’m not really going to calculate my max utility, and I will only calculate my financial disutility. I will intepret the “Whole Load of Trouble” as a fine which according to Malaysian Law, is no less than 5 times the amount bribed, or $10,000, whichever is higher (If found guilty under Section 10, 11, 13, 14, and 15 of the Anti Corruption Act 19976).
Game Theory 101 (simple 1 person game):
Minimum Expected Disutility for Paying the fine = $300
Minimum Expected Disutility for Paying the bribe
= P(C)*$10000 + P(N)*P(J)*$200 + P(N)*P(U)*500
= 6.062 + 139.915 + 149.90
= $295.88
And this is just the financial disutility alone. I didn’t take into account the possible jail time (which would be opportunity cost for other forms of income). $300 and $295.88 isn’t much difference. Paying the $300 fine carried some utilities, but paying the $200 bribe carries more risk as well, and so in short, I’d pay the fine.
Now, lets see what happens if the bribe was lowered to $100 (which was what the officer initially offered me):
Minimum Expected Disutility for Paying the bribe
= P(C)*$10000 + P(N)*P(J)*$100 + P(N)*P(U)*400
= $195.95
Thoughts on Bribery - How Much to Bribe?
In fact, a majority of traffic offences in Malaysia carry a $300 fine (like speeding, parking in yellow boxes, not paying for a 60cent/displaying parking coupon, U-turning at no U-turns, talking on the phone while driving), and it’s common knowledge that the best way off the hook is to bribe them coppers with at least $10 when they compound you on the spot.
As such, here is a graph displaying the disutility vs the amount bribed (assuming that if you don’t bribe, your disutility is a full $300 fine7).
The formula was changed a bit - it is assumed that 90% of the cops who ask for bribes actually do not bother to fill up reports and compounds after the bribe.
From this, I’d say, it’s worth bribing if the bribe amount is $10 - $50. If you’re risk-seeking of course, because despite a very small chance of getting caught for bribery - P(C) = 0.0006062 - the chance is still there. And surely you do not want to languish in jail.
Why is it worth bribing if the bribe is from $10 to $50? Simply because your expected disutility is below $100. In Malaysia, if you pay your traffic offence fines early, you usually get a discount, which means you only have to pay about $100.
Incidently, the market price (i.e. asking price) for a typical bribe (especially when a police officer asks for it for on-the-spot compounds) is around $50 (at least in the Klang Valley). I reckon deep inside us, we figure that anything above $50 is not worth it.
No, I’m not encouraging bribery. Those who know me will know that I am super risk-averse, and will only venture into a risky zone after making very calculated moves. In fact, I completely discourage bribery, as it amounts to cheating, and in my books, is no different from stealing or murder.
Reducing Corruption
But here is one suggestion that the government can take to reduce corruption: Reduce fines.
An expensive fine for parking offences (I mean, compare a $300 fine or a 60 cent parking coupon) is perfectly fine (pun intended), as there is a large disparity between the tangible opportunity costs - the attempt in not getting a fine (60cents), a bribe ($50) and a fine ($300).
But how do you attach a price to an offence like speeding? Or U-turning at a No U-turn area? There are no tangible opportunity costs, and the only apparent two possible monetary opportunity costs for speeding - $50 bribe, or $300 fine. If the fines are matched with the bribe, there isn’t any more incentives to bribe, now is there?
If fines are reduced to $100, there isn’t an incentive for people to give a $50 to the coppers (unless they weigh that saving $50 is worth the risk going to jail - stupid proposition I think). Coppers wouldn’t have the incentive to ask for a $10 - its too little to justify being caught for corruption.
On the other hand, the govt. will then face a moral hazard problem - if the opportunity cost of speeding is just $50, and everyone can afford it, why not just speed? But if the govt. wants to tackle bribery and corruption at the very root level, try reducing fines, or temporarily doing so, like giving people discounts. Reducing corruption AND reducing traffic offences, now that’s a challenge.
Final Thoughts - No Data
Sadly though, there is a dearth of data available for free in Malaysia, so I cannot back up my claims with hard data. Even the corruption data was hard to find. Maybe my google-fu sucks. heh. I had contemplated a Bayesian method of doing the probabilities of getting caught for corruption, and getting a traffic fine and etc, but to my dismay, I can’t find any sampled data out there. The statistics page in the BPR site (that’s the anti-corruption agency) is a joke. Really.
Even so, with my very rough estimations, I’ve shown that it’s not worth to bribe (well, at least not above $50). If you have a screwed up moral compass, and make your decisions in life based on material needs alone, I’ve presented my argument why you shouldn’t bribe (or should, in the range of $10-$50). I’ve come up with a suggestion on how to reduce the incidence of corruption, now its your turn to trash my suggestion.
In the original draft of this article, I wrote a bit on reporting the corruption attempt (refer to my extended form game above), but then it didn’t make the final draft, so I’m stuffing what I think here on the footer. When I paid my fine (yes, I paid $300), I didn’t have the incentive to file a report for the corruption attempt. My aversion to hassle (filing police reports sucks, I’ve done it 3 times in my life - only one for traffic incidence, the other two were stalker and assault incidents) has led me to outweigh the conscience of me doing a public service. So, yeah.
Do discuss! Tell me what you think of bribery and corruption in Malaysia.
Footnotes
- A compound is an official notice that you’ve been fined for some offence. You typically bring your compound to govt. offices to pay for your fine. It’s something like an invoice/notification for a fine [↩]
- the job being, in my case, making the report magically disappear [↩]
- P(C) means the probability of getting caught for bribery. Statistics come from the Anti-Corruption Agency’s statistics sites (hah! you call that statistics??!!!) for the 485 and this site for the 800000 figure. As such, this probability is a very very very gross estimation for calculations, so please don’t quote it [↩]
- This is an assumption that 70% of the police officers who receive bribes actually set out to do what they were bribed to do [↩]
- Because the police officers didn’t do what they were supposed to do after the bribes, I’d still have to pay the fine, ergo, $200 for the bribe, and $300 for the fine [↩]
- source in Malay [↩]
- if you pay your fines early, you get a discount [↩]
Cool?
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It’s when people don’t bother to keep filing those corruption reports that it continues to keep getting out of hand. You’re only assisting to the bribery/corruption (even if you pay the fine) by not letting it be known that corruption within the police force was shown.
Oh noes, Liss…
Another “When the good man does nothing” lecture 
Hey.. what happened to the internet over there?
Pay the fine if you can afford it. Pay the bribe if you can’t. Zen simple.
It’s actually more expensive to pay the bribe
It’s not a lecture. It should be an immediate ‘duh, I know and do that’ thought.
Net’s gone down a few times but resetting generally works. Once this morning, a couple times yesterday. Speed came back at about 11.30 last night.
Btw, you got Telstra bill. Details on msn if you want.
Why is the last car or the car behind always at fault?
It’s because you were tailing too close from the start. If you were traveling at 50 or 60 km/h and halted suddenly, your car would still hit the front car even if it’s 1 foot away. Not counting if it’s a professionally driven or modified car.
So here’s what I’d do. Pay the fine, report the bribe offered, ask if there’s a reward and live with a clear conscience. Not to mention learn how to read the drivers in front better.
*gives danny foo a cookie*
So many (quite arbitrary) assumptions! what is the expected disutility from misestimation of probabilities?
And you are doing it post-hoc, no doubt you might have tried to justify having paid the fine instead of taking the bribe.
It can work if you keep it very very simple though. I did it once for deciding whether my father should not pay RM900 to postpone a flight and instead taking the risk of possibly missing it and having to pay more. But still the probabilities were very subjective. Though mine was a *prediction*. Not a justification. I was against my father being so risk-averse at first until i did the calculations. His intuitions were right. We arrived just in time for the postponed flight. (it doesnt really prove anything though, coz these are just…probabilities)
Forget about maximizing expected utility. just keep it simple stupid. Here’s a fable:
One philosopher was struggling to decide whether to stay at Columbia University or to accept a job offer from a rival university. The other advised him: “Just maximize your expected utility–you always write about doing this.” Exasperated, the first philosopher responded: “Come on, this is serious.”
sorry Chewxy, you said you were going to blog about this but you didnt. so here it is, the source.
Danny:
Paid the fine, didn’t report (couldn’t be bothered), and still living with a clear conscience. I doubt I’d be marginal enough to cause a change.
Liss:
Heh. Nvm, keep resetting. 2 more days…
zcer:
yeah, sorry. I was supposed to post that in the Random Miscellaneous Stuff post… but I thought I had stuffed enough economic nonsense in it already. But yea.
This isn’t a justification though. I did it just for fun. If I wanted to justify me paying the fines, I’d use other methods to.
Assumptions were necessary as I said, there is really a dearth of data available, so you just have to make do, and use rough probabilities.
Ever heard of the saying “every little bit counts”? Yeah. I’m tempted to say you’ve got somewhat of a ‘victim mentality’ for this. A bit “what’s the point? I’m only one person; I can’t do anything!”.
What’s happening in 2 days?
I vote for Chew to be a policeman in Malaysia.
| Tubby |
Liss:
Yah. That’s why I said “I doubt I’d be marginal enough to cause a change”. Not so much of a victim mentality, but more of apathy. Like in terms of voting - pointless. Not every bit counts if not everyone is interested. (I feel a bit lazy to calculate an n-player game though, and besides, there is a ton of papers on voting already - both for and against it)
Er, in 2 days, TPG will release the throttle, so the speed will be back up at 24mbps.
Tubby:
Hmm.. no thanks mate. Not interested in serving the public. Heh.
A. Speed’s back.
B. You’d be counting yourself as one of the few who “aren’t interested”. Yet you ARE interested, but can’t be bothered because ‘apparently’ others aren’t interested. I want to explain more but I can’t figure out how to say…
Hmm okay.
Being interested doesn’t mean having the incentive to be bothered.
Do the simple thing… don’t bribe them.
Some cops ask for bribes even before they take out their booklet to issue you a summons.
And if they ask, “How do we settle this?”, just ask for the fine.
Act innocent like I-Rene. She always escaped. No fine, no bribery, no nothing. No idea how she makes it.
Aoshi:
Yes, sometimes the simplest solutions are the best
Coffeeholic:
LOL. Really? Gotta meet up with Irene and ask her her techniques
Avoid-fine-from-cop no jutsu… HYAAGHHHH!!!!